Carlisle: Next time you think it's cold, think of Green Bay
By Jim Carlisle (Contact)
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
One undeniable truth emerged for me after watching the NFL's conference championship games on Sunday:
I am such a weather wimp.
Don't laugh. You are too. Don't deny you weren't sitting at home watching the New York Giants beat the Packers at Green Bay and started shivering even though the thermostat in your living room read somewhere between 68 and 72 degrees.
Admit it. Monday morning you were at the office telling everyone how tough it was for San Diego to play the Patriots in such cold conditions in New England, even though you were watching in the den, wearing your fuzzy bunny slippers. The biggest obstacle you had to overcome was not burning your tongue while sipping your clam chowder.
We in Southern California can't even comprehend what it was like at Lambeau Field on Sunday. There were 72,740 people there, willingly facing a game-time temperature of 1 below zero and a 12 mph wind that made it feel like 23 below.
Meanwhile, we went to church with our teeth chattering because the thermometer had the audacity to get below 40 the night before.
A lot of the linemen playing in Green Bay decided to show their manliness by wearing short sleeves.
We can't even drive on the freeway in the rain.
By the time the game was over and the Giants had beaten the Packers 23-20 in overtime to win the NFC Championship Game, I really felt sorry for the fans watching at Lambeau. Not because their team lost, but because of what happened Monday morning when they woke up.
They were still in Green Bay.
* * *
- ow some cold, hard facts from the week just past:
- So, it'll be the Patriots and the Giants in the Super Bowl on Feb. 3 in Glendale, Ariz. The Patriots will be trying to complete an undefeated season and are favored to win by 13 to 14 points.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean the oddsmakers believe New England will actually win by that much. The line they establish is to try to get an equal amount of betting for each team. If they can get you to think the line is too high, then you might bet for the Giants. That way even if New York loses, but loses by less than the spread, you still win.
Better yet, if you really want to be a winner, don't bet at all. That way you come out ahead, no matter what.
- One thing for certain: The Giants' prospects are not nearly as bright as coach Tom Coughlin's cheeks by the end of the game Sunday.
- The game will be played in the Arizona Cardinals' new home, University of Phoenix Stadium. It was completed in 2006, cost $455 million and named for a college that doesn't even have sports.
The retractable roof will be open for Super Bowl XLII. I guess they figure after last weekend, the Giants and the Patriots will be able to withstand the Arizona elements.
- The game times for the conference championships were established long before anyone ever knew who would be playing in them. Playing a January night game in Green Bay may not be the most intelligent thing in the world, but it does make for great television.
- Fox's NFC pregame show in Green Bay took place on the field, while CBS' AFC show originated from its warm New York studio. I give CBS points for smarts.
- There are those who think the NFL should scrap their sudden-death overtime format in favor of something more like what's done in college football because usually the NFL team that wins the coin flip wins the game on the first possession.
Of course on Sunday, the Packers messed that theory up a little bit when Brett Favre threw an interception and the Giants kicked the winning field goal.
- It would've been great to have Favre in the Super Bowl one more time, especially as a counterpoint to Tom Brady and the machine-like Patriots, but the much-maligned Eli Manning will do.
- Manning certainly seems to have had a veil lifted from his eyes in the last few weeks. In fact, playing the Patriots the last game of the regular season seemed to be the fly-or-fail push he needed.
- Not only have we had Mannings play quarterback in back-to-back Super Bowls, but consider this: We weren't that far from having Eli play his brother Peyton in the Super Bowl. We also flirted with the possibility of having Eli face the Chargers, the team he rejected before he was drafted.
- Wonder what Tiki Barber's opinion is of Eli now. And, while I'm sure he would never admit it, Barber has to have at least a smidgen of regret about retiring a year too soon.
- Do you suppose anyone in San Diego watched the Chargers play the Patriots at Junior Seau's restaurant?
- About time: Mike Carey will be the first black referee of a Super Bowl.
- Let the games begin: USA Today reports during halftime of the Super Bowl that Spike TV will show a commercial-free competitive eating contest featuring ham and eggs. Now, that's why it's called Super Sunday.
- It certainly was a well-behaved crowd at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Of course, that may be attributable to the fact they don't sell beersicles.
- Jim Carlisle is a staff writer for The Star. E-mail address: jcarlisle@VenturaCountyStar.com. In addition to his Tuesday columns, he also covers TV-Radio sports on Fridays. For more, please visit his blog at jimcarlislesports.blogspot.com.
(c) 2008 The E.W. Scripps Co.
Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets
A Wharton economist argues prediction markets can cut through the clutter of polls and pundits.
By JUSTIN WOLFERS
December 31, 2007
As the 2008 presidential race heats up, voters are overwhelmed by a flood of new data: Who is ahead in the polls? Who is winning the "money race"? How are the dynamics of the race likely to respond as the candidates tack left and right, advertising strategies change, and we learn whose Web site is drawing more eyeballs?
Political prediction markets provide us -- the consumers of this information -- with a way to cut through this clutter.
A prediction market is a bit like the stock market, except that you are buying shares whose value depends on the success of a political candidate, rather than the profits earned by a corporation. And just as stock prices are a useful barometer of the health of a company, so too the price of a prediction contract is a barometer of the health of a political campaign.
Alternatively, for those schooled on the Strip rather than the Street, prediction markets allow you to bet on the election, just as Vegas bookies allow you to bet on a football game. And the uncanny ability of the betting line to predict football outcomes also holds in the political domain.
It is the accuracy of market-generated forecasts that led the Department of Defense to propose running prediction markets on geopolitical events. While political rhetoric about "terrorism futures" led the plug to be pulled on that particular experiment, the original insight -- that markets can help make sense of vast amounts of disparate information-- remains valid.
Experimental prediction markets were established at the University of Iowa in 1988, and they have since amassed a very impressive record, repeatedly outperforming the polls. Research by economic historians has documented betting on elections over a century ago, and the impressive forecasting record of prediction markets was also evident in the period before scientific polling was adopted.
More recently, in the 2004 primaries, prediction markets pointed to the disintegration of Howard Dean's candidacy in advance of the fateful Iowa caucuses. In the 2004 presidential election, the market favorite won the Electoral College in all fifty states; in 2006 the markets also picked every Senate race.
How do these markets work? Right now, you can buy a $1 bill for 44 cents; the only catch is that you only get the $1 if Hillary Clinton is our next President. The fact that this $1 bill is selling for 44 cents tells us that "the market" believes her to have a 44% chance of winning the presidency, a number that has risen sharply as she has become more likely to win the Democratic nomination. Interestingly, prediction markets have long suggested a strong showing for Ms. Clinton, even as popular commentators had earlier dismissed her as unelectable, much as they did prior to her successful New York senate race in 2000.
In a truly efficient prediction market, the price will come to reflect the influence of all available information. For instance, those discouraged by Ms. Clinton's recent polling in New Hampshire are probably selling, while those who believe endorsements by the Iowa Register are crucial are buying; Ms. Clinton's campaign to increase her likeability may lead some to buy, while recent mis-steps by her campaign may lead others to sell. Economists influenced by the possibility of a recession are buying various Democrats, while political scientists schooled in the incumbency advantage are probably buying Republicans.
Through this process of different people trading based on their own observations about the race, prediction markets prices come to aggregate disparate pieces of information into a single summary measure of the likelihood of various outcomes. Moreover, if this market operates efficiently, it will appropriately summarize all of this information and the price will become the most statistically accurate forecast of the election outcome.
Two other characteristics also distinguish prediction markets. First, they respond to all sorts of news beyond shifts in public opinion, including changes in campaign staff, political re-positioning, and performance on the trail.
Second, prediction markets are forward-looking, while polls are often backward-looking. For instance, Fred Thompson continues to do well in national polls largely due to name recognition, while prediction markets have discounted this advantage, understanding that candidates like Mike Huckabee will become better known through the campaign. Indeed the markets currently believe that Mr. Thompson is less likely to win the Republican nomination than fringe candidate Ron Paul.
Beyond Mr. Thompson, polling data for Republican candidates is much more consistent with the markets, suggesting a four-way race in which Messrs. Giuliani and Romney are the leading candidates, with Messrs. McCain and Huckabee not too far behind. The markets predicted Mr. Huckabee's surge a few weeks before the polls, and it appears to have come at the expense of Mr. Romney. The big story this week, though, is John McCain, who has resurrected his campaign. The market now judges him to be a clearly credible alternative.
On the Democratic side, national polls suggest a landslide for Ms. Clinton, while the markets suggest that the race is still very competitive, with a one-in-three chance that Obama or Edwards will ultimately win the nomination.
Turning to the general election, the markets are titling strongly pro-Democratic, ranking them a 61% chance of taking the White House.
Stay tuned during the campaign, and we'll continue to track where the markets undermine the conventional wisdom, and when they start to point to barely emergent trends. I can't predict what these trends will be, but I'll bet that the markets will yield interesting insights. I will highlight them for you in the coming weeks.
Justin Wolfers is an Assistant Professor of Business and Public Policy at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. He will be writing for the Journal about the 2008 presidential campaign through the prism of prediction markets. You can reach him at predictions@wsj.com.
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Clothed in purple, Beaver shines
Aaron McFarling
The purple jersey covers up a lot.
A body that coach after coach deemed too small to play big-time college football. A tattoo on the right arm with the backstory that drives him. A cracked rib that only a select few insiders knew about.
All of that was shrouded when Justin Beaver was on the field. All we saw on Saturday night was football greatness, that purple No. 32 jersey cutting through the chilly rain at Salem Stadium, shifting to elude the linebackers, breaking free for a game-clinching, 60-yard run in the fourth quarter.
But it's what's underneath that jersey that made the 2007 Stagg Bowl special.
Justin Beaver didn't just run for 249 yards; he also served as the perfect symbol for 23 Wisconsin-Whitewater seniors who scoffed at the odds, an entire team that refused to accept that this couldn't be done.
The Warhawks upset Mount Union 31-21, and Beaver was the biggest reason it happened. The 5-foot-9, 200-pound senior would simply not go down.
He ran over people. He ran around people. And on the most significant play of the night -- a dive up the middle on 2nd-and-5 late in the fourth quarter -- he ran away from people, sprinting through the gap and then down the right sideline for a first down that crushed the last of Mount Union's hopes.
"If this is a dream, I don't want to wake up," Beaver said. "Just gotta keep sleeping forever, I guess."
He smiled.
"But I think by now we know it's not a dream," he said. "We did it."
They did it. And there weren't many rational people who thought they could.
The oddsmakers certainly didn't -- they set the betting line at Mount Union by 19. Anybody who's followed Division III football in recent years didn't -- Mount Union had won nine of the past 14 Stagg Bowl titles, including wins over the Warhawks the past two years.
But Justin Beaver believed, because he learned long ago that you have to believe to get anything done in life. His obstacles began immediately. He was born to teenage parents. He was sent to live with his grandparents when he was 3 months old. He moved back in with his parents off and on through middle school, but returned to his grandparents' after his father died suddenly following his junior year in high school.
That prompted Beaver to get the tattoo -- a cross, with the three letters scripted on it: DAD.
"I know that he's always by my side," Beaver said. "I know that he's always watching. Every time I point to the sky, I'm pointing to him and thanking him for everything. It's just an inspiration."
Like a lot of Division III players, Beaver is a football nut who didn't have the "measurables" to impress recruiters at the higher levels when he was playing at Palmyra-Eagle High School in Palmyra, Wis.
"I didn't have a lot of other options," Beaver said. "Too short, too slow, not big enough -- all those things."
But over his four years as a Warhawk, he blossomed. This year he rushed for more than 2,000 yards and won the Gagliardi Trophy, given to the nation's top Division III player.
Beaver finished his career with 6,584 rushing yards, but it was these 249 yards that mattered most to him. These 249 left no doubt.
After the game, when it was finally safe to do so, Warhawks coach Lance Leipold revealed a little secret they'd been keeping. Four weeks ago, Justin Beaver cracked a rib on his right side during a playoff game. He's been playing through it ever since.
Should we really be surprised?
The purple jersey covers up a lot. But Justin Beaver's determination had revealed itself long ago.
Copyright (c) 2007
Heisman Trophy talk
Compiled by Chris Givens
Posted on Saturday, December 8, 2007
Heisman reflecting crazy year In a wild season in college football, a year in which the national champion competitors reached the title game almost by default, the Heisman Trophy race was equally unpredictable.
Five players led in consensus polling during different points in the season. Scripps Howard News Service, which has conducted a poll for 21 years and accurately predicted the winner in 17 of them, talked to several voters about their final choices.
"In a season measured by disappointment and disaster, Tim Tebow was the only player who strung together a year's worth of good games," poll voter Dana O'Neil of the Philadelphia Daily News said. "While everyone else rode the roller coaster of injury or simply awful games, Tebow was rock-steady." Another poll voter, Tom Luicci of the Newark (N. J. ) Star-Ledger, begged to differ.
"The award goes to the best player in college football, right ?" Luicci said. "McFadden is it, period. Tebow had great individual stats, but it's not all about numbers. Otherwise, Kevin Smith [of Central Florida ] would win this in a landslide." "Despite Florida's three losses, Tebow's numbers and the teams he amassed them against are too spectacular to overlook," Vahe Gregorian of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch said.
John Rohde of The Oklahoman in Oklahoma City went with McFadden.
"When choosing between McFadden and Tebow, I glanced at the official Heisman ballot where it says to vote for 'The most outstanding college football player in the United States," the Oklahoma columnist said. "McFadden is a more outstanding player than Tebow. McFadden is better than every player out there." One way to look at it Denver Post columnist Mark Kiszla, responding to a reader's question about the Heisman Trophy race "There seems to be a lot of talk about Florida quarterback Tim Tebow and Arkansas running back Darren McFadden regarding the Heisman Trophy. Many people seem to think the trophy will go to one of these two outstanding players. What would Florida do without Tebow ? Well, last year, with limited play from Tebow, the Gators won the national championship. The year before McFadden arrived at Arkansas, the Razorbacks had a 5-6 record." Who's the stiff ? Sculptor Frank Eliscu was 23 and a recent graduate of Pratt Institute in Brooklyn when the Downtown Athletic Club commissioned him in 1934 to create what would become the Heisman Trophy.
Eliscu was instructed to design a statue modeled after a "muscular footballer driving for yardage." "It is not my best work, but it turned out to be something like the Statue of Liberty," Eliscu once said of the Heisman Trophy. "I always thought it was wonderful that I'll be able to leave something like this behind." Eliscu designed the trophy with a real football player as his model, New York University's Ed Smith. Eliscu, however, modified his original clay design to illustrate a stiff-arm and sidestep move as demonstrated by Fordham running back Warren Mulrey. So while the statue's likeness is of Smith, the classic "Heisman pose" is Mulrey's. The Heisman Trophy is made of bronze with an onyx 1 base. It is 13 / 2 inches tall and 14 inches wide and weighs 60 pounds (the bronze statue itself is 25 pounds ). The Heisman Trophy Trust commissions the design of two trophies each year, one for the winner and one for the winner's school to display. Priceless award How much is the Heisman Trophy worth ? In an auction last December, the Heisman Trophy Bruce Smith won as a Minnesota running back in 1941 was purchased by Los Angeles businessman Gary Cypres for $ 429, 000. Former Southern Cal running back Charles White's 1979 Heisman sold for $ 293, 750 at auction last year. O. J. Simpson sold his for $ 230, 000 at auction. Former Notre Dame star Paul Hornung sold his to a New York restaurant owner for $ 250, 000 to finance a scholarship endowment for Notre Dame students from his hometown of Louisville, Ky. Heisman winners are now asked to sign a waiver pledging not to sell the trophy.
Lining up The betting lines are in, and Florida's Tim Tebow is a heavy favorite to win at 1-8, according to Sportsbetting. com. Arkansas' Darren McFadden has the secondbest odds at 4-1, followed by Hawaii's Colt Brennan at 12-1 and Missouri's Chase Daniel at 30-1.
Overstatement ? Greg Cote of The Miami Herald is looking toward divine intervention in his hopes of Tim Tebow winning the Heisman. "If there is a God, and say for example He wished to atone for allowing man to invent the thoroughly indecipherable Bowl Championship Series rankings formula, then Tim Tebow will win the Heisman Trophy. " A school of thought holds that the Heisman ballot might as well start with No. 2 this weird season because there is not one clearly outstanding player.
" Wrong.
" There might not be one team that has proved to stand out as No. 1, but there is one player who has stood out, up and above the field." "For Tebow, the numbers should speak for themselves. Consider that USC's Matt Leinart won the Heisman in 2004 with 28 touchdown passes and teammate Reggie Bush won the next year with 15 touchdown runs.
" Tebow has more than both of them, in each category, in one year - a Heisman year." On golf and football Apparently football and golf do mix.
At this week's Merrill Lynch Shootout at Tiburon Golf Club in North Naples, Fla., University of Florida graduate Chris DiMarco naturally pitched his two cents in favor of Gators quarterback Tim Tebow.
"Obviously, I'm biased towards Tim Tebow," DiMarco said of the player who would become the first sophomore to win the award. "I think somebody has to break that sophomore jinx. I mean, 29 touchdowns passing and 22 rushing, the guy is phenomenal. Everybody who played him said he should have won it." Darren McFadden has his own sizable support on tour.
Former Arkansas golfer and Dardanelle native John Daly thinks McFadden should have won the award last year as a sophomore.
"I think he deserves it," Daly said. "I know Tebow had a hell of a year, but... I think McFadden really had a better year and should have won it last year. Hopefully they'll give it to him this year." No laughing matter Sportswriters are a notoriously contrarious bunch, but David Ching of the Columbus (Ga. ) Ledger-Enquirer said that the case Tim Tebow's detractors have made against him borders on comical.
"Apparently it's not enough to be the first player ever to run for more than 20 touchdowns and pass for more than 20 in one season. Or to break the SEC's singleseason rushing touchdown record while having one of the most efficient passing seasons of any quarterback in league history.
" He only runs for short touchdowns," they'll say, pointing out that 16 of his record 22 touchdown runs came from 5 yards or fewer, as if his being one of the most bankable goal-line runners in SEC history is a bad thing.
"And for all the howls about how he's only a fullback playing quarterback, the 235-pound Tebow certainly has thrown the ball well. He has the second-highest passer rating (177. 9 ) in the country and averages more yards per pass attempt (9. 88 ) than any other quarterback." By the numbers 0 Heisman winners who wore the same jersey number (15 ) as Florida quarterback Tim Tebow. 2 Heisman winners who wore the same jersey number (5 ) as Arkansas running back Darren McFadden (Notre Dame's Paul Hornung in 1956 and Southern Cal's Reggie Bush in 2005 ). 4 Heisman winners who have played on teams with four losses. 7 Heisman winners who have played on teams with three losses. Polling the polls Following is a sampling of how the Heisman vote is shaping up, gleaned from recent reports in print and online.
Copyright (c) 2001-2007 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Inc. All rights reserved.
COMMENTARY : Gambling is scary word for college coaches
BY JOHN HELSLEY THE OKLAHOMAN, OKLAHOMA CITY
Posted on Friday, October 26, 2007
Texas football Coach Mack Brown so fears the evils of gambling, he pleads with his players to keep Longhorns injuries secret - even from mom and dad.
Big Brother is watching, too, as the Big 12 Conference maintains a working relationship with a Las Vegas firm that monitors betting trends.
"We tell our players, 'If you're going to talk to even your parents, don't talk about injuries. Be really, really careful, because it puts you in a tough spot, because it looks like for some reason you might be putting information out,'" Brown said.
Brown isn't so much concerned about the parents racing to lay money down with bookies. His point is you never know who's listening.
"If they tell somebody at the drug store, the grocery store, then it just grows," Brown said.
"Gambling scares you to death. It's another one of those things that is not an issue until you have it."
A 2003 report issued by the NCAA suggested it's a very real issue, with student-athletes involved in widespread gambling of some sort.
The report spurred the Big 12 to raise its awareness on gambling and its potential influence on games, leading to the hiring of Las Vegas Sports Consultants Inc., a group that also works with the NCAA, NFL, NBA and NHL.
The Big 12 's alliance with LVSC, in its third year, is one phase of the league's gambling program that also includes background reviews that include court document research, as well as education of athletes and officials.
The connection with LVSC delivers an insider's view of betting lines and trends and how they might relate to Big 12 schools in football and men's basketball, the college sports where lines are set.
"They inform us if there's any kind of concern about the way the lines move or on money that comes in on the game at the last minute, stuff like that," Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe said.
"So far, knock on wood, we haven't had any issues. But we decided that's a worthwhile effort."
Beebe was concerned last month when it was revealed that Texas A&M Coach Dennis Franchione was e-mailing certain donors with "insider" updates that included, among other items of interest, injury information, although no links to gambling have surfaced.
"It's unfortunate, because I think he's figured out and others that it was not the thing to do," Beebe said. "We don't want that kind of information being shared, obviously."
Elsewhere, conferences and schools haven't been so fortunate.
Just last March, the FBI alleged it had uncovered a conspiracy between a gambler and a football player at Toledo to influence the outcomes of games.
Some cases have gone further.
The NBA suffered a public relations hit when former referee Tim Donaghy pleaded guilty to felony charges of gambling and wire fraud last August. The NHL, too, took a hit when former Phoenix Coyotes assistant coach Rick Tocchet was accused of financing a nationwide gambling ring and pleaded guilty to gamblingrelated charges last year.
In 2001, Florida basketball player Teddy Dupay was declared ineligible for his senior season after admitting to violating team rules about betting on sports.
Northwestern has been stung twice by noted scandals. In 2001, former football player Brain Ballarini pled guilty to gambling charges and admitted to running betting operations at Northwestern and Colorado. In a related matter, two Northwestern basketball players admitted they tried to fix games. In 1994, a Northwestern football player was suspended for gambling, but denied he fumbled intentionally at the goal line in a game against Iowa.
In 1996, then-Boston College football Coach Dan Henning heard after a 45-17 loss to Syracuse that some of his players might have bet against their own team. Eventually, 13 Boston College players were suspended and six were banned.
These and similar situations, where unsavory characters coerce college athletes to affect a game's outcome, concern coaches most.
"It's real scary to me," Oklahoma football Coach Bob Stoops said. "You've got to protect the game... It's just educating them on just what a horrible place and position to put yourself in, the ramifications of it and just how easy it can happen."
Copyright (c) 2001-2007 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Inc. All rights reserved.
Shelton: Odds are against USF
By GARY SHELTON, Times Columnist
Published October 18, 2007
They are fresh. They are fun. In the Year of the Upset, they have become college football's ultimate underdogs.
As you fall in love with the USF Bulls, however, know this:
The odds are still against them.
Oh, if you believe in a good story, the Bulls are the team for you. They have come so far, and arrived so fast, it seems as if they have been ripped from the pages of a Hollywood script. When it comes to college football, the Bulls are a better story than the Gipper, a better story than Wrong-Way Riegels, a better story than Hail Flutie.
But are they as good as their No. 2 ranking in the BCS poll would indicate?
Don't bet it, say the experts.
According to two nationally known oddsmakers, the Bulls would an underdog in at least half of their games against the other teams ranked in the BCS top 15. In college football, there are goal lines and there are betting lines, and so far, the money isn't buying into USF's success.
This week, the Times asked both Danny Sheridan and the bookmakers of the Bodog internet site (Bodoglife.com) to set lines for hypothetical neutral site games against other ranked teams. Sheridan had the Bulls going 7-7 in those games. Bodog had them going 4-9 (Bodog did not pick a winner in a USF-West Virginia matchup).
Move over, Jimmy Johnson, and slide down, Nick Saban.
Another week, and another set of doubters.
If you are a USF fan, this should amuse more than anger you. The best part of the Bulls' success is how unexpected it has been. The Bulls are in their 11th season, and they're competing for the national title. Do you know who the last team was to win a national title at the age of 11? It was Yale ... in 1886. (No word on what Saban thought of Yale's grades.)
This isn't done, not in college football. Other sports may welcome the ambitious newcomer, but not college football. To be someone in this sport, you have to have been someone last year. And 20 years ago. And 50 years ago. The sport of the Four Horsemen does not welcome stray riders.
And if USF should falter, Sheridan has a warning. Look out.
"If USF loses, it's going to fall a lot further than LSU did," Sheridan said. "The guys who run the BCS are praying daily that USF loses. Do you think they want USF in a national championship game? There is not a chance in hell.
"USF is a great story, and I'm pulling for it. But the BCS is a party for the big bowls in the big leagues. They don't care about good stories. They didn't want BYU, and they didn't want Boise State, and they don't want South Florida."
Deep down, you probably know that. There are bigger names than USF. NFL scouts will tell you there are more talented teams, too. More than any other team, however, USF is ranked where it is because of what it has done, not because of who it was expected to be.
Nevertheless, there is some proving to do.
(c) 2007 - All Rights Reserved - St. Petersburg Times
Duke excels at line play
The Blue Devils are 1-5 on the field but 5-1 against the spread.
By Lonnie White, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
October 10, 2007
Six weeks into the college football season, several teams have climbed to the top of the heap when it comes to beating the spread, led by undefeated Cincinnati, Kansas and Missouri.
But one successful team stands out more than the rest: Duke, which despite a 1-5 record on the field is 5-1 against the spread.
In last week's 41-36 loss to Wake Forest, the Blue Devils displayed why they have become such a strong bet. After spotting the seven-point favorite Demon Deacons a 34-9 lead, Duke rallied behind quarterback Thaddeus Lewis and scored 27 of the final 34 points.
Lewis, who threw four touchdown passes against Wake Forest, is the type of player who can produce points in a hurry. He leads an explosive offense that works well in super-sized point-spread games.
That's a positive combination for the Blue Devils, who have not been a favorite for a game since they played East Carolina on Sept. 3, 2005.
Duke will be an underdog again Saturday when it plays host to Virginia Tech, a 13 1/2 -point favorite.
It should be noted that the Hokies, who have won four games in a row and are 5-1 this season, do not have a good track record against the spread. They have failed to cover in four of five games, but did so in a 41-23 win at Clemson last week.
What about last season's game between Duke and Virginia Tech? The Blue Devils were 34-point underdogs and the Hokies won, 36-0.
Something will have to give in tonight's game between Navy (3-2) and Pittsburgh (2-3), in which the Panthers are four-point favorites.
Navy has one of the worst defenses in the nation, ranked 105th in yards (453.6 a game) and 93rd in points allowed (31.4).
But Pittsburgh's offense has been anything but a juggernaut.
With freshman quarterback Pat Bostick getting his second start, the Panthers will take the field ranked 105th in yards (315.0 a game) and 100th in points scored (20.4).
Copyright 2007 Los Angeles Times
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